SPC Mar 25, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX....

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...FL...
A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL.  Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE
values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze
circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon.  Low-level winds are weak and veered. 
However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be
sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind
through early evening.

...TX/OK...
Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly
low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass.  By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to
develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM
solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms.  While this scenario is
not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds for a few hours.

Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm
advection and lift across southern OK.  This will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast
TX late.  A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025

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