SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025