A weak tropical disturbance, known as JTWC’s Invest 96W, is centered
just northwest of Koror near 8N133E. This system is expected to
continue to move northwest overnight, exiting the region later
tonight or Wednesday.
96W will continue to bring deep tropical moisture into the region
which, combined with strengthening trade-wind convergence in its
wake, is expected to continue to generate numerous heavy showers and
some thunderstorms across Yap, and scattered heavy showers across
Palau tonight.
This rain event will continue to produce a risk for flooding impacts.
An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain may fall at Palau and Yap
overnight. There remains high uncertainty in the coverage and timing
of showers due to the developing system being poorly organized, which
in turn has skewed the QPF accumulations lower than the usual among
deterministic model guidance. Meanwhile, the ensembles continue to
indicate good potentials within the general vicinity of Yap Proper
and near Palau, which is more in line with predicted rainfall amounts
using satellite imagery. The risk of mudslides remains low for the
duration of the rain event, unless rain rates and duration change
substantially overnight. Showers are not expected to taper down
significantly starting Wednesday, after which 96W will be farther
away and NET activity is expected to decrease, allowing weather to
gradually improve.
This will be the last issuance of the Special Weather Statement for
Palau and Yap regarding this weather event.