SPC Mar 26, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of
the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over
the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern High Plains across southern Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the
period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward
across northern Mexico and Texas through the period.  Local risk for
hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms.

During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop
across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.  Despite
modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support
gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm.

Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over
higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into
adjacent portions of Texas with time.  Meanwhile, remnant outflow
from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate
instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper
system.  Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and
increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support
organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of
all-hazards severe potential.  Risk will likely continue through the
evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time.

...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley...
As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains
and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the
prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft.  Isolated afternoon
surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas
vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along
with potential for hail.  However, more widespread convection during
the period is forecast north of the warm front.  Steep lapse rates
above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow,
suggests potential for severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

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