Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025
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