SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025