SPC Mar 26, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the
Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska
vicinity overnight.

...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of
the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving
southern-stream trough crossing the area.  As the trough continues
moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing
clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting
additional convective development.  

Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area.  However,
ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to
southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient
for organized/weakly rotating storms.  Convection will spread into
Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by
the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or
two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at
this time.

...Nebraska vicinity...
As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains
into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the
Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of
focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska
vicinity.  Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate
mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level
southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to
produce hail, during the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

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