SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025