SPC Mar 26, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas
with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower
Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail
and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening.

...South TX...
Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading
low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant
cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM
displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance.
This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of
D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be
much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM.

Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading
convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it
shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing
outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the
higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving
substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with
persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate
mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across
parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters.
Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. 

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...
Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk
across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early
evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm
development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the
low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great
Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly
subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment
characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This
region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level
westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of
the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep
mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail
threat, peaking around early evening.

..Grams.. 03/26/2025

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