SPC Mar 26, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf
Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...East/south TX and LA...
A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive
preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX.
Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of
this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably
remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate
low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized
damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in
the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before
shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA
coast through Friday night.

...NE to WI...
Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent
within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper
Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple,
low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow
regime along the international border and moving northeast across
the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective
development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this
activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the
baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from
the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur
across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass
response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat.

..Grams.. 03/26/2025

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