SPC Mar 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday
evening/night.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue
shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley.  Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima
will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within
background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow.

At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great
Lakes through the end of the period.

...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and
Louisiana...
As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the
day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate
destabilization.  As such, ongoing convection early in the period
will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas
relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover.

While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow
veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for
organized storms and occasional rotation.  Along with potential for
large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest
storms, a tornado or two will also be possible.  Once locations of
more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in
future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required.

...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes...
Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the
vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper
Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs.  With ample
mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms
over the Mid Missouri Valley area.  Farther east, ahead of the low,
most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front,
with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

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