SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Saturday evening may pose local risk for hail and potentially strong wind gusts. ...portions of Oklahoma northeastward into Iowa/Illinois... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the forecast for Saturday across the central U.S. -- with models exhibiting notable differences with respect to evolution of the surface pattern. Additionally, the NAM in particular maintains strong capping across the warm sector, which will likely hinder convective development for much of the period -- and potentially limiting convective to being primarily elevated/nocturnal. At this time, it appears that a corridor for initial storm development will be over the eastern Kansas vicinity, as a cold front moves across the area trailing from a frontal wave/low shifting eastward across roughly the Kansas City area during the evening. Convection may evolve mainly to the cool side of this boundary as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops, though a few at least nearly surface-based storms are expected. Though mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms to evolve -- aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Large hail will likely be the primary risk, though a strong gusty or two may also occur. Expect adjustments to the risk area and/or risk level, as greater certainty evolves with time in this complex scenario. ..Goss.. 03/27/2025
