SPC Mar 27, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms developing Saturday evening may pose local risk for
hail and potentially strong wind gusts.

...portions of Oklahoma northeastward into Iowa/Illinois...
Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the forecast for Saturday
across the central U.S. -- with models exhibiting notable
differences with respect to evolution of the surface pattern. 
Additionally, the NAM in particular maintains strong capping across
the warm sector, which will likely hinder convective development for
much of the period -- and potentially limiting convective to being
primarily elevated/nocturnal.

At this time, it appears that a corridor for initial storm
development will be over the eastern Kansas vicinity, as a cold
front moves across the area trailing from a frontal wave/low
shifting eastward across roughly the Kansas City area during the
evening.  Convection may evolve mainly to the cool side of this
boundary as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops,
though a few at least nearly surface-based storms are expected. 
Though mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, shear will be
sufficient for a few stronger storms to evolve -- aided by steep
lapse rates aloft.  Large hail will likely be the primary risk,
though a strong gusty or two may also occur.  

Expect adjustments to the risk area and/or risk level, as greater
certainty evolves with time in this complex scenario.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

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