SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night. ...TX Coastal Plain to LA... After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening. These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night. ...Upper Midwest to NE.. Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing, but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving, highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume. Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential appears likely to remain marginal. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025