SPC Mar 27, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for
Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf
Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper
Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night.

...TX Coastal Plain to LA...
After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor
mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead
of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded
convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift
east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the
rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be
tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of
moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability
tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening.
These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night. 

...Upper Midwest to NE..
Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent
atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in
the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most
prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream
of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the
international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing,
but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving,
highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume.

Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the
stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until
evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale
ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as
the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential
appears likely to remain marginal.

..Grams.. 03/27/2025

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