SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK TO NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail could be the primary hazard, but severe gusts and a couple tornadoes may occur. ...Central States... Primary changes with this outlook are to add a level 2-SLGT risk and expand the level 1-MRGL along the dryline through TX. A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough, with at least a few embedded shortwave impulses, will shift east from the West into the Central States by early Sunday. A northern/leading impulse will aid in cyclogenesis into Saturday evening over the Lower MO Valley. A southern/basal impulse will yield a separate cyclone over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border area. Boundary-layer moisture will be richer ahead of the southern cyclone beneath a stout EML. Guidance consensus suggests early evening thunderstorm development should occur along the northwest edge of the low to mid 60s surface dew point plume, centered on south-central KS/north-central OK. Additional storms will probably form northeastward along the front into the Lower MO Valley. The degree of convective coverage with southern extent is more nebulous, but there are signals for isolated cells as far south as the Edwards Plateau. Convection along much of the front northeast of OK should tend to grow upscale into clusters given the flow orientation relative to the boundary and initially moderate mid-level winds. A more favorable discrete supercell wind profile exists in OK, posing a conditional very large hail and tornado threat along this portion of the dryline Saturday evening. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025