SPC Mar 27, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK
TO NORTHERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail could be the primary hazard, but severe gusts and a
couple tornadoes may occur.

...Central States...
Primary changes with this outlook are to add a level 2-SLGT risk and
expand the level 1-MRGL along the dryline through TX. 

A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough, with at least a few embedded
shortwave impulses, will shift east from the West into the Central
States by early Sunday. A northern/leading impulse will aid in
cyclogenesis into Saturday evening over the Lower MO Valley. A
southern/basal impulse will yield a separate cyclone over the
eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border area. Boundary-layer moisture
will be richer ahead of the southern cyclone beneath a stout EML.
Guidance consensus suggests early evening thunderstorm development
should occur along the northwest edge of the low to mid 60s surface
dew point plume, centered on south-central KS/north-central OK.
Additional storms will probably form northeastward along the front
into the Lower MO Valley. The degree of convective coverage with
southern extent is more nebulous, but there are signals for isolated
cells as far south as the Edwards Plateau.

Convection along much of the front northeast of OK should tend to
grow upscale into clusters given the flow orientation relative to
the boundary and initially moderate mid-level winds. A more
favorable discrete supercell wind profile exists in OK, posing a
conditional very large hail and tornado threat along this portion of
the dryline Saturday evening.

..Grams.. 03/27/2025

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