SPC MD 270

MD 0270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS / LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

Mesoscale Discussion 0270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...far southern Texas / Lower Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271841Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong gusts cannot be ruled out eventually over
parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

DISCUSSION...A large, heavy-rain producing convective system
continues to slowly propagate eastward, with newer development
upstream into Mexico (see WPC MPD #0088). Midday soundings reveal
deep, moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a high LFC. While the
18Z BRO sounding shows winds veering with height and substantial 0-1
SRH, the combination of poor low-level lapse rates and lack of any
baroclinic boundary (outflow) thus far suggests little brief tornado
risk. In addition, overall wind potential remains low as the deep
moist profiles mitigate downdraft/evaporation potential. 

Although radar indicates little outflow at this time, a few strong
gusts may eventually be generated as heating persist. For any
brief/QLCS type tornado potential, this appears highly conditional
on a substantial outflow boundary first materializing.

..Jewell/Smith.. 03/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759
            26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850
            26089895 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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