SPC Mar 30, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread
damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of
the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and
eastern Gulf Coast area...
An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states
overnight.  Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the
Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to
progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the
day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore
overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by
ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf
Coast region.  Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing
front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the
mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to
evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity.  This
will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as
it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of
the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms.  Northern
portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will
likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe
risk.  Farther south, greater instability will support stronger
convection, including linear bands near the front with
local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the
boundary.  As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied
by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given
ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.  

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving
offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

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