SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois, where large hail would be the main severe risk. ...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valley, southward into Texas... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to amplify over the western U.S. Tuesday, as several short-wave features rotate through the flow. A prominent/initial wave is forecast to shift into the central/northern Plains overnight, evolving into a closed low over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In response, a surface low over the central High Plains early in the day is forecast to deepen/shift northeastward into the Mid Missouri Valley area overnight. A trailing cold front will shift across the central and southern Plains through the second half of the period. Diurnal convection ahead of the advancing upper system, and attendant cold front, should remain largely suppressed through the day by stout capping. A dryline storm or two cannot be ruled out, and very limited/conditional potential for hail or a damaging gust may exist across southern Oklahoma south into central Texas. Greater risk will evolve overnight, mainly with elevated storms near and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas/Missouri. Large hail would be the primary risk in this area, with shear favoring supercells. While the NAM hinders convection south of Kansas through the period (due to maintenance of a capping inversion), both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that isolated storms may initiate along the cold front. While only MRGL risk will be included at this time, due to the conditional risk for surface-based/all-hazards risk should storms develop along the front, this will need to be reassessed in later outlooks with possible SLGT risk upgrade. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025