SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025