SPC Mar 30, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon
across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat
expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail,
severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the
central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially
significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday
evening and early Wednesday morning.

...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
development. 

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional
storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward
across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can
remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards
could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms
may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of
large hail and locally damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

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