SPC MD 300

MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHERN MISSOURI…WESTERN TENNESSEE…WESTERN KENTUCKY

Mesoscale Discussion 0300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas...southern
Missouri...western Tennessee...western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 301841Z - 302045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for storms in portions of
the Mid-South, including the potential for discrete supercells.
Tornadoes (some strong), very large hail, and severe gusts are all
possible. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...With the cold front beginning to move southeastward in
Missouri, storm development along it can be expected as it
encounters greater low-level moisture. Some of the activity in
southeastern Missouri may be discrete at least for some period of
time. Of greater concern will be storms that develop in
western/central Arkansas. There, the surge of the cold front through
Oklahoma has allowed a slightly more favorable boundary/shear vector
orientation. Recent short-term model guidance has continued to show
a signal for storm development in these areas. These storms would
have greater potential to be discrete and remain so for a longer
duration. With the stronger low-level flow lifting north, the
tornado threat may initially be lower. However, discrete storms that
persist into the evening will have increasing tornado potential
(including strong tornadoes) as the low-level jet increases in the
Mid-South.

The 18Z observed Little Rock, AR sounding showed very steep
mid-level lapse rates, 45 kts of effective shear, and a remaining
capping inversion. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail
and severe gusts would be possible. Though cumulus continues to
steadily deepen in the region, it may take another hour or two for
storms to initiate. Subtle mid-level ascent in Oklahoma will pivot
into the region and should assist in this process. A tornado watch
is likely later this afternoon.

..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34959359 34959389 35309378 36449303 36759281 37059233
            37119212 37298974 37148906 36998863 36478854 35908887
            35219177 35079275 34959359 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

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