MD 0303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...The northern Gulf Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301909Z - 302115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for brief tornadoes may continue through the
late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, training convection has
been continually developing along the northern Gulf Coast along a
outflow-reinforced marine boundary. Although a consolidated outflow
boundary is slowly developing per regional radar imagery, steady
influx of high low-level theta-e air off the Gulf should promote
further thunderstorm development through the diurnal heating
maximum. Weakly veering winds through the lowest 2 km (best sampled
by the KMOB VWP) is supporting sufficient low-level helicity for
brief mesocyclone development with an attendant tornado risk. This
potential has already been realized at least once based on a recent
TDS evident across far southeast MS. Until the sea breeze weakens
early this evening, strong updrafts with an attendant brief tornado
threat may continue to develop on the southern periphery of the
marine/outflow boundary. Given the localized nature of the threat
watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30868660 30628662 30458675 30318702 30248749 30198797
30168862 30228920 30048969 30159010 30409025 30709007
30948958 31098876 31208772 31188706 31088668 30868660
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN