SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025