SPC MD 319

MD 0319 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX…NORTHERN LA…WESTERN MS…FAR SOUTHEAST AR

Mesoscale Discussion 0319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern TX...northern LA...western
MS...far southeast AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310539Z - 310745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Continued/developing severe thunderstorm potential is
uncertain. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the surface
cold front draped across southeast AR into east TX. An additional
cluster of storms continued across east TX to near the Sabine River
in western LA. While the airmass ahead of these areas of convection
remain unstable, large-scale ascent continues to shift northeast of
the region. Only modest convergence along the front is noted in weak
surface wind observations across MS/LA. A lack of stronger forcing
may limit overall severe potential. However, favorable vertical
shear and MLCAPE values at or above 1500 J/kg amid steep midlevel
lapse rates could support severe storms, mainly capable of large
hail and perhaps strong gusts. Trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32139497 33519150 33379051 32839035 31789061 31059137
            30819232 30759378 30969431 31459484 31689507 32139497 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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