SPC MD 320

MD 0320 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80… FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...far eastern Kentucky and portions of West Virginia
into far western Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...

Valid 310617Z - 310745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential should gradually decrease with eastward
extent the next few hours. Isolated strong gusts continue to be
possible in the short term.

DISCUSSION...The line of convection extending from southwest WV into
eastern KY, especially the southern extent over eastern KY,
continues to be well organized amid strong deep-layer southwesterly
flow. Instability will weaken with time and eastward extent, and
convection should gradually wane in intensity as storms approach the
WV/VA border vicinity. Further south, stronger bowing/QLCS
convection will continue to move across eastern KY toward far
western VA/southern WV. This activity may continue to produce severe
gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado over the next 1-2 hours. However,
similar to further north, downstream instability will diminish and
stronger large-scale ascent will continue to lift northeast away
from the region. As such, a gradual weakening trend is expected. A
small local watch extension may be needed, but otherwise, downstream
watch issuance appears unlikely.

..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   39188130 38998057 38478042 37728094 36628191 36608297
            36638437 37028410 38178278 39188130 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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