SPC MD 321

MD 0321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 78…81…82… FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE…NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA…AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of Middle and eastern
Tennessee...northeast Mississippi...northern and central
Alabama...and northwest Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...81...82...

Valid 310721Z - 310915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78, 81, 82 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two will continue eastward over the next few
hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of
the region.

DISCUSSION...The line of severe storms over Middle Tennessee is
expected to move into Tornado Watch 82 by/near 08z, allowing Tornado
Watch 78 to expire on time. Tracking ongoing convection over
northeast MS/northwest AL, this activity also should be close to the
edge of Tornado Watch 81 near its expiration time of 10z. A new
watch will likely be needed to cover portions of northeast MS into
northern AL/northwest GA as additional storm development across
northern MS/AL is expected, and as ongoing storms shift east the
remainder of the night. 

Sufficient instability and strong deep-layer flow will sustain
strong to severe convection through the overnight hours. Special 06z
RAOB from JAN indicates some mild inhibition in the 850-700 mb
layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind
profiles suggest some continued risk is possible into early morning.
Tornado potential may be limited by stronger low-level inhibition
and more modest 0-1 km shear. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed in the next 1-2 hours to replace portions of Tornado Watch
81, and to include points downstream across northern and central AL
into northwest GA.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36048534 36148448 35818396 35128401 34508448 33618560
            33108652 32938733 33078818 33768846 34188863 34518867
            34718863 35028838 36048534 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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