MD 0327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88… FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...
Valid 311754Z - 312000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely continue into more of
southern Georgia and North Florida. An additional severe
thunderstorm watch for parts of these areas is probable this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...With surface temperatures ahead of the ongoing
convective line reaching the low 80s F, MLCAPE has risen to around
2000 J/kg. As the line progresses east, the expectation is for
continued damaging gust potential into southeast Georgia and North
Florida. There will be some waning influence of the upper-level
trough and shear will remain greater to the north/west. This makes
the intensity of the line somewhat uncertain with eastward extent. A
severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be considered for
portions of southeast Georgia and North Florida.
Regarding a QLCS tornado threat, KEOX data suggest that there were
two brief TDS in far southeastern Alabama. Regional VAD data
continue to show limited low-level hodograph curvature. Trends in
the convective line and the environment continue to suggest the
possibility of the QLCS tornado, though any circulation should be
brief.
..Wendt.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 30228592 31408544 31858514 31858451 31718208 31578148
31128153 30228149 29808233 30228592
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH