SPC MD 328

MD 0328 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND


Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Northern North Carolina into Virginia and Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311845Z - 312045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms across the western Carolinas are
expected to increase in coverage through late afternoon and early
evening. Eventual watch issuance into North Carolina and
Virginia/Maryland is possible as storms grow upscale and pose a more
widespread wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Convection across the western Carolinas has shown
steady intensification over the past hour as lift associated with an
approaching mid-level wave/vorticity maximum begins to impinge on
higher-quality moisture/buoyancy in the lee of the southern
Appalachians. Downstream of these storms into northern NC and VA,
partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid
70s to low 80s amid a gradual return of low-level moisture. MLCAPE
values around 500 J/kg are already in place across north-central
NC/VA based on an observed 18z GSO sounding adjusted for observed
temperature/dewpoints further east into the warm sector. This
sounding and regional VWPs are also sampling 30-40 knot flow within
the lowest few kilometers and sufficient deep-layer shear to promote
loosely organized convection. The expectation is that convective
coverage should slowly increase over the next 1-2 hours across
western NC/southwest VA with gradual upscale growth. As this occurs,
a damaging wind threat should eventually materialize as storms move
into the more deeply mixed environment across north-central
NC/central VA where dewpoint depressions are approaching 20-25 F.
Precisely when storm coverage/organization is sufficiently
widespread to warrant watch issuance remains somewhat uncertain, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35357946 35248050 35188116 35218155 35418184 35768195
            36078188 36408167 36788112 37438000 37677943 38477778
            38827668 38877614 38647572 38307556 37847555 37257562
            36967563 36597574 36287620 36067680 35567847 35357946 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

StormPrep