SPC Apr 1, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC....

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal
zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the
primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River to the Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic, will serve as the
primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad
troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide
coverage of strong to severe storms over a large area.

...Red River to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across from the Ohio Valley
to the Red River at the beginning of the period as a broad low-level
jet interacts with a frontal zone. Some of this activity could be
severe at the beginning of the period, especially near the Red
River, where steeper lapse rates and stronger isentropic ascent is
forecast. If this activity near the Red River can maintain along the
instability gradient, it could materialize into an increasing severe
threat into Arkansas perhaps as early as mid-morning. However, given
the strength of the low-level jet, expect substantial precipitation
in the morning across Arkansas which could limit eastward
continuation of the early threat. 

However, regardless of how the morning activity evolves, there will
likely be a corridor from the ArkLaTex to near Memphis where strong
instability and strong shear will be present south of any ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Maintenance of a low-level jet through the
day should provide ample ascent for thunderstorm development.
However, rising heights ahead of the deepening western CONUS trough
do cast some doubt on convective coverage. In addition, a more
robust cold pool could limit longevity of any storms within this
better environment before moving into the rain-cooled air. 

...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic...
As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level
flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty
on the presence of convection along and north of the front,
plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it.
Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent
for additional convective development through the day. Several
clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front
with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and
eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model
differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the
stalled front.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2025

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