Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Instances of patchy to locally dense fog throughout the state will gradually lift and dissipate as the sun continues to rise through the mid-morning hours.
- Dense Fog Advisories are in effect along coastal portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend and will continue through the mid-morning hours.
- An approaching organized line of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, squall line, ahead of a cold front will move into the western Panhandle late this morning and continue to race across the I-10 corridor through the evening hours (50-90% chance of rain).
- Within this line, and ahead of it, isolated and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon and evening hours.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Panhandle and western Big Bend towards the I-75 corridor, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending over the Suwannee Valley and Nassau County and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) pushing into Nature Coast.
- Within these strong to severe thunderstorms, both the organized line and any thunderstorm activity that develops ahead of the line, will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather including, lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated tornadoes, large hail (1-1.5”) and locally heavy rainfall.
- The greatest threat within the organized line of thunderstorms looks to be damaging winds.
- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the far western Panhandle through 2:00 PM EDT/ 1:00 PM CDT as a line of thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, large hail and an isolated tornado or two.
- Additional watches may be issued downstream as conditions warrant.
- There is some uncertainty with this squall line and if it remains intact as it continues to move eastward beyond the Panhandle and western Big Bend later this afternoon and evening.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle due to potentially heavy downpours creating instances of localized flooding, given that grounds are already saturated from yesterday’s rainfall.
- The East Coast sea breeze will develop again later this afternoon and evening along the eastern Peninsula allowing for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which could also create some locally strong to severe thunderstorms (20-30% chance of rain).
- Drier conditions will gradually return overnight as the cold front pushes through North Florida and the line of showers and thunderstorms breaks apart and becomes disorganized, but a few spotty showers may linger overnight (20-35% chance of rain).
- Some instances of fog may be possible late overnight and into early Tuesday morning, especially with lingering moisture on the ground from rainfall.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s to upper 80s this afternoon and low temperatures will fall into the 60s and low 70s.
- A high risk for rip currents extends across Panhandle beaches due to stronger onshore winds and a moderate risk extends across East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.