SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY.... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower OH Valley Friday and Friday night. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... A band of elevated storms is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period from central/northwestern TX into southern OK. Hail appears likely with this activity as it meanders along and north of the front. The risk for hail and damaging gusts should continue eastward as storms shift eastward through the day. Reinforced by this convection and increasing low-level cold advection, the front should begin to move southward early in the period, assuming a more north-south orientation. An elongated surface low should develop along the front backing low-level winds through the day. A band of storms will form near the front and spread east/northeast into the ArkLaTex into Friday evening. Strong southerly flow aloft and a 40-50 kt low-level jet may support a mixed convective mode with the potential for all hazards. ....MS/OH Valleys... Embedded within the amplified south/southwesterly flow aloft, several perturbations will track north along a well-defined inverted trough across the MS and lower OH valleys. A weak wave cyclone, associated with the upper jet max, will also shift north providing some focus for convective potential through the late afternoon and into the overnight hours as it draws deeper moisture northward into the OH Valley. Strong low-level warm advection of seasonably deep moisture will support moderate buoyancy along and south of the front. With weak ascent spread over much of the frontal zone, several clusters of strong to severe storms with the potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2025
