SPC Apr 2, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY....

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
lower OH Valley Friday and Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
A band of elevated storms is likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period from central/northwestern TX into southern OK. Hail
appears likely with this activity as it meanders along and north of
the front. The risk for hail and damaging gusts should continue
eastward as storms shift eastward through the day. Reinforced by
this convection and increasing low-level cold advection, the front
should begin to move southward early in the period, assuming a more
north-south orientation. 

An elongated surface low should develop along the front backing
low-level winds through the day. A band of storms will form near the
front and spread east/northeast into the ArkLaTex into Friday
evening. Strong southerly flow aloft and a 40-50 kt low-level jet
may support a mixed convective mode with the potential for all
hazards.

....MS/OH Valleys...
Embedded within the amplified south/southwesterly flow aloft,
several perturbations will track north along a well-defined inverted
trough across the MS and lower OH valleys. A weak wave cyclone,
associated with the upper jet max, will also shift north providing
some focus for convective potential through the late afternoon and
into the overnight hours as it draws deeper moisture northward into
the OH Valley. Strong low-level warm advection of seasonably deep
moisture will support moderate buoyancy along and south of the
front. With weak ascent spread over much of the frontal zone,
several clusters of strong to severe storms with the potential for
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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