MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022018Z - 022215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe
risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch
is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly
with any discrete storms.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been
noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to
2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear
will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The
KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the
low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That
being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening
where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track
northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for
parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas.
Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been
anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the
primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there
may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud
cover has been present most of today and hindered overall
destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur
in northeast Texas given these factors.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513
34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238
31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN