SPC Apr 3, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of
Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado
potential.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend
from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves
across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH
Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure
developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This
feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH
late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur
over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly
deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a
rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells
with tornado potential. 

Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of
northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal,
elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper
trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into
central TX.

...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley...
Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red
River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient
instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will
favor hail potential.

During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector,
which will remain very moist.  Afternoon supercells are anticipated
over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation
across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will
experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for
a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate
effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued
northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH
Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the
front with access to unstable air mass.

Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge
of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold
front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into
central TX.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

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