SPC Apr 3, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max
will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into
the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches,
winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel
winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys.

At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into
central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The
northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary
through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave
developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern
AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help
maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level
shear for a tornado risk.

...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley...
Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the
OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by
low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail.

Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective
AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast.
However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets
of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western
TN/northern MS. 

Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel
lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days.
However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells
and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it
surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast
into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk
area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

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