SPC Apr 3, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to
Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east
from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast.

On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR
and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this
time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the
Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is
expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be
higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable.

The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue
into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk
should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but
low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas.

For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern
will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building
over the West, and northwest flow across the central states.
Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep
conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS.

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