SPC MD 379

MD 0379 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107… FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY

Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 031911Z - 032115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms across eastern Kentucky continue to pose a threat
of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm-air advection continues to
support thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky.  Afternoon insolation
and a narrow axis of better moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) extending
into eastern Kentucky have resulted in MLCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg. The deep-layer flow and shear (over 50 kts per
mesoanalysis and local VWPs) are more than sufficient for organized
storm modes.  Currently, the dominant convective mode of north-south
oriented bands along the differential heating zone seems to favor
severe-wind potential at this time; however, the strong low-level
shear would support tornado potential pending a more favorable
convective mode.

..Jirak.. 04/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   37058597 37458492 37808397 37838326 37858314 37768271
            37498253 37238280 37158316 37078347 36998401 36778495
            36728558 36728576 37058597 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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