MD 0381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032031Z - 032300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of
severe weather this afternoon and evening. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this
time.
DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area,
low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm
development across eastern Kentucky. The storms are expected to
continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds
and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have
limited destabilization. With low-level flow (and attendant warm
advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat
for the convection to persist. Given the sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends
will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be
unlikely at this time.
..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37968246 38258201 38258094 38437951 39007785 38357744
37577755 37427861 37207996 37208091 37158158 37408235
37968246
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN