MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN WV PNHDL…NRN VA…MD…DC…SRN PA…DE…SRN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn
NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040752Z - 040845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany
weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge
and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas
through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some
intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of
Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward,
along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front,
around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly
deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into
northern Mid Atlantic.
Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this
corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat
(CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern
Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further
intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as
activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm
intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast
soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may
contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of
rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855
39897751
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH