SPC Apr 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley,
as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and
southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near
the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move
slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s
F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the
front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day,
due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of
this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create
strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama
during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will
support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have
a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning
and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are
curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible
with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to
remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments
will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into
early evening, but should become more isolated as instability
weakens across the region.

Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak
will support some storm organization. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat
will be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

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