SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2025
