SPC Apr 5, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Monday
across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern
Florida.

...Southern Atlantic Seaboard/Northern Florida...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the
southern Atlantic Seaboard and into northern Florida. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front at the start of
the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F will
contribute to an unstable airmass. Model forecasts suggest that
MLCAPE will peak around 1000 J/kg ahead of the front during the
afternoon. In addition, the edge of a 500 mb jet streak will create
moderate deep-layer shear along the front, which should be favorable
for some storm organization. A line of strong thunderstorms is
expected to develop by midday, as low-level convergence is
maintained along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings along
this zone of convergence in the afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
40 to 50 knot range, and have some directional shear in the boundary
layer. This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat.
However, low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor
throughout day due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow.
This should keep any severe threat that develops marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

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