SPC MD 407

MD 0407 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 119…120… FOR NORTHEAST AR…WRN TN…ADJACENT SWRN KY


Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...northeast AR...wrn TN...adjacent swrn KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...120...

Valid 050711Z - 050915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119, 120 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for additional tornadoes and locally damaging wind
gusts may persist into the 4-5 AM CDT time frame.  A new WW may be
issued or Tornado Watch 119 locally extended.

DISCUSSION...A developing mesoscale convective vortex is now near
the Jonesboro AR vicinity and migrating northeastward around 40 kt,
with a narrow vigorous line of convection arcing southward toward
the Greater Memphis area.  To the south of stalling convective
outflow, near the lower/mid-tropospheric vorticity center
east-northeastward toward areas near/north of Hopkinsville and
Bowling Green, one notable supercell has evolved within the
convective line and may have recently produced a tornado to the
west-northwest of Memphis.

Along and south of the stalled outflow, there appears a narrowing
corridor of modest potential boundary-layer instability to main a
continuing risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts
another several hours, in the presence of strong low-level and
deep-layer shear.

..Kerr.. 04/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35969029 36488900 36778690 35508870 35238963 35109030
            35589021 35969029 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

StormPrep