Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- After several days of mostly dry conditions, an active weather pattern will return across the Panhandle beginning later this afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching cold front (40-70% chance of rain).
- Showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon may be locally strong to severe and produce lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
- Mostly dry conditions will also continue throughout the Peninsula, with a chance for brief showers late in the day along the eastern Peninsula towards the I-95 corridor (10-20% chance of rain).
- Breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph, and stronger wind gusts upwards of 35 mph along the coast, will develop across the state throughout the day. A brief Wind Advisory cannot be ruled out along portions of the coastline if winds increase further.
- Elevated winds, relative humidity values near critical thresholds (35-40%) and warm temperatures will lead to sensitive wildfire conditions throughout the interior Peninsula this afternoon.
- High temperatures will remain in the 80s to middle 90s across the state this afternoon.
- An approaching cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandle this evening and overnight before continuing to push eastward early Monday morning (50-90% chance of rain).
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle towards the Apalachicola River basin, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending just west of the Capital City as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible within the line of showers and thunderstorms.
- Any of these strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (55-65 mph), an isolated tornado or two and locally heavy rainfall.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the far western Panhandle, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending eastward towards the Apalachicola River basin, as locally heavy downpours and intense rainfall rates could lead to instances of localized flooding and ponding of water.
- Instances of fog may be possible overnight and into Monday morning, especially throughout the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents persists nearly statewide due to breezy onshore winds and elevated surf.
- High Surf Advisories continue across portions of the Panhandle due to dangerous surf of 4-6′ along the coastline. Elevated surf upwards of 2-4′ can be expected throughout the state, with greater surf of 4-6′ along Atlantic-facing Key beaches.
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