SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025