SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025