SPC Apr 6, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across
parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on
Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase
with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending
south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. 

In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt
low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200
m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to
around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the
western Carolinas into central GA at midday.

Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold
front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift
encounter the warming air mass to the east. 

The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft,
which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing
and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe
storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with the strongest storms during the afternoon.

..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

Read more