SPC Apr 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme
southern Florida.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and
Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern
CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will
move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper
ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive,
low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and
High Plains. 

...Far southern FL...
A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf
across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered
thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold
front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal
levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these
reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. 

The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This
may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not
strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a
cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the
Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential.

..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

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