Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
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