SPC MD 423

MD 0423 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 129…131… FOR PARTS OF SERN MS INTO CNTRL AL


Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MS into cntrl AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...131...

Valid 060827Z - 061030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129, 131 continues.

SUMMARY...Circulations embedded within a line of pre-frontal storms,
and perhaps additional more discrete storms near or just ahead of
the line, will continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
locally damaging wind gusts while slowly spreading across
southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama through 6-7 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely remain focused along
a slow moving to stalling outflow boundary, now near or south of a
line from Chattanooga TN through Huntsville AL and Columbus MS,
where it intersects outflow associated with a line of convection
extending southward toward a slowly advancing cold front near and
south-southwest of Jackson MS.  Near/east of this activity,
inhibition associated with large-scale ridging aloft continues to
suppress deep convective development; however one cell, emerging
from pre-frontal bands of weak convection across southeastern
Mississippi through the Alabama border vicinity, did recently
intensify to the west of Meridian (and probably produce a tornado)
prior to beginning to merge into the convective line.

The large-scale mid/upper ridging and positively-tilted upstream
troughing are very slowly progressing eastward, and it appears that
ongoing thunderstorm activity will do likewise.  Although the Rapid
Refresh suggests that a stronger southerly 850 mb jet core is in the
process of shifting into the southern Appalachians, flow on the
order of 40+ kt trails southwestward toward the Gulf coast.  This is
maintaining sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near weak
pre-frontal surface troughing, where a narrow corridor of seasonably
moist boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70)
appears to be supporting moderately large CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg.

..Kerr.. 04/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31069046 31648998 32698920 33088868 33338779 33668703
            33918634 33108633 32358731 31398882 30779003 31069046 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

StormPrep